Here's the early returns this morning.
Democrats-
Clinton - California
Obama - Alaska, Missouri
New Mexico is too close to call.
Clinton has 740 delegates; Obama has 659. 2,025 are needed to secure the nomination.
Republicans-
Romney - Colorado, Alaska
McCain - California, Missouri
McCain has 575 delegates, Romney has 250, Huckabee has 170 (love those even numbers). 1,191 are needed to secure the nomination.
- Some of Ron Paul's biggest supporters were in Rochester for a concert Tuesday night. The U.S. Bombs, a longtime skate-punk band from California, are about halfway through their "Ron Paul: Revolution Tour '08." They played a great set at the Bug Jar on Monroe Avenue, but did not address the events of Super Tuesday at any point. Paul has 16 delegates, by the way.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
The waiting is the hardest part
Why not reference a Tom Petty song after his excellent performance at the Super Bowl?
All eyes are on California right now, as both parties are half an hour into counting the votes.
It's time for us to take a break. Check back in early tomorrow morning, when the final results and delegate count should be in.
All eyes are on California right now, as both parties are half an hour into counting the votes.
It's time for us to take a break. Check back in early tomorrow morning, when the final results and delegate count should be in.
Final numbers in from Monroe Co. (R)
John McCain is the big winner nationally, but Mitt Romney did very well in Monroe County. Here are the final numbers:
McCain - 15,767
Romney - 14,131
Huckabee - 4,950
Paul - 2,640
Giuliani - 1,429
Romney just won the Montana and Minnesota caucuses.
Obama has taken the Colorado primary and the Idaho caucuses. Clinton has won Missouri.
McCain - 15,767
Romney - 14,131
Huckabee - 4,950
Paul - 2,640
Giuliani - 1,429
Romney just won the Montana and Minnesota caucuses.
Obama has taken the Colorado primary and the Idaho caucuses. Clinton has won Missouri.
Breaking down NY and Western NY
New York's already been called for McCain and Clinton. Let's take a look at the numbers and see how Western New York voted.
- Maybe a lot of people saw the "Mitt Mobile" in the past few months. With 85% of Western New York reporting, Romney has more than 30% of the vote. It's irrelevant, since New York is winner-take-all.
- Mike Huckabee (whose victory in Georgia just caused a ripple throughout the newsroom) is getting a very respectable 15% of the vote in WNY.
- Barack Obama's campaign has a right to cheer. With more than 80% reporting, he's getting nearly 40% of the vote. That's going to mean delegates his campaign wasn't counting on. Curt Smith said it's a "tremendous night" for him.
McCain has taken Arizona.
- Maybe a lot of people saw the "Mitt Mobile" in the past few months. With 85% of Western New York reporting, Romney has more than 30% of the vote. It's irrelevant, since New York is winner-take-all.
- Mike Huckabee (whose victory in Georgia just caused a ripple throughout the newsroom) is getting a very respectable 15% of the vote in WNY.
- Barack Obama's campaign has a right to cheer. With more than 80% reporting, he's getting nearly 40% of the vote. That's going to mean delegates his campaign wasn't counting on. Curt Smith said it's a "tremendous night" for him.
McCain has taken Arizona.
California dreaming
Curt Smith said the Democratic race will be "a long marathon. Hillary Clinton with a victory in New York, but not a stunning victory. Barack Obama won by a bigger percentage in his home state of Illinois. We won't know until we get to California. I do think Clinton will emerge with a slight edge after tonight."
North Dakota, Connecticut, and Utah go to Obama.
Romney looks to be the loser of the night, unless he pulls off a victory in California. He's won two states so far (Massachusetts and Utah, neither a surprise). Mike Huckabee may emerge as tonight's big winner, because of his victories in the South, and his fight in close races that haven't been called yet, like Missouri.
North Dakota, Connecticut, and Utah go to Obama.
Romney looks to be the loser of the night, unless he pulls off a victory in California. He's won two states so far (Massachusetts and Utah, neither a surprise). Mike Huckabee may emerge as tonight's big winner, because of his victories in the South, and his fight in close races that haven't been called yet, like Missouri.
A tale of two campaign parties
Just got off the phone with News 8's Kevin Jolly. He's at 289 on Alexander Street in Rochester, where the local Hillary Clinton campaign has gathered to watch tonight's results.
Kevin said the mood is surprisingly subdued, considering Clinton's victory in New York. He said most of the people inside are gathered at the bar, and are being quiet.
It's quite a contrast with the local Obama campaign, who watched tonight's results unfold at Nathaniel's on Exchange Boulevard in Rochester. Kevin said every Obama victory was met with a resounding cheer. The mood was very upbeat.
It seems like Clinton and Obama are splitting states. New Jersey went to Clinton; moments later Alabama went to Obama.
Kevin said the mood is surprisingly subdued, considering Clinton's victory in New York. He said most of the people inside are gathered at the bar, and are being quiet.
It's quite a contrast with the local Obama campaign, who watched tonight's results unfold at Nathaniel's on Exchange Boulevard in Rochester. Kevin said every Obama victory was met with a resounding cheer. The mood was very upbeat.
It seems like Clinton and Obama are splitting states. New Jersey went to Clinton; moments later Alabama went to Obama.
Local McCain campaign takes victory in stride
Jecoliah Ellis is at Don's Original in Penfield, where about 25 local McCain supporters gathered to watch tonight's results. Jecoliah says the atmosphere is relaxed, and that no one was surprised when it was announced that McCain took New York.
Completely off-topic- the best contest of the night might be the St. John Fisher-Nazareth men's basketball game. It looks like Naz, who was up 15 at halftime, will hold off a furious Fisher rally.
Completely off-topic- the best contest of the night might be the St. John Fisher-Nazareth men's basketball game. It looks like Naz, who was up 15 at halftime, will hold off a furious Fisher rally.
McCain takes NY
John McCain has won New York, and it's 87 delegates.
Our political analyst, Curt Smith, just walked into the newsroom.
His first impressions-
- "Romney needs to win California if he wants to survive the night."
- "Huckabee's strong performance shows that conservatives aren't willing to vote for John McCain. They're looking for anyone else... they'd vote for Dan Quayle if they could."
Our political analyst, Curt Smith, just walked into the newsroom.
His first impressions-
- "Romney needs to win California if he wants to survive the night."
- "Huckabee's strong performance shows that conservatives aren't willing to vote for John McCain. They're looking for anyone else... they'd vote for Dan Quayle if they could."
The big story: voter turnout
Democrats locally have turned out in force for this year's primary.
Here are the 8:30 numbers from the Board of Elections:
City - 41%
Towns - 39.2%
County - 40%
In 2004:
City - 14.3%
Towns - 18.5%
County - 16.8%
In 2000:
City - 19.2%
Towns - 22%
County - 20.6%
On the Republican side, the numbers are comparable to the 2000 primary.
2008:
City - 24.1%
Towns - 26.5%
County - 26.2%
2000:
City - 26.4%
Towns - 30.6%
County - 29.8%
Here are the 8:30 numbers from the Board of Elections:
City - 41%
Towns - 39.2%
County - 40%
In 2004:
City - 14.3%
Towns - 18.5%
County - 16.8%
In 2000:
City - 19.2%
Towns - 22%
County - 20.6%
On the Republican side, the numbers are comparable to the 2000 primary.
2008:
City - 24.1%
Towns - 26.5%
County - 26.2%
2000:
City - 26.4%
Towns - 30.6%
County - 29.8%
Polls closed; Clinton wins NY
The polls are closed. Hillary Clinton will win New York. By how much remains to be seen.
Here's a look at the states that just wrapped up.
Results trickling in; missing MO?
Arkansas goes to Clinton and Huckabee, no real surprise there.
Deleware goes to McCain.
The only state we haven't heard from in either party - Missouri, which has 58 delegates that will go to the winner of the Republican race.
It's time to look ahead to 9 p.m., when polls in 6 states, including New York, close. If you haven't voted, I hope you're warming up your car.
Deleware goes to McCain.
The only state we haven't heard from in either party - Missouri, which has 58 delegates that will go to the winner of the Republican race.
It's time to look ahead to 9 p.m., when polls in 6 states, including New York, close. If you haven't voted, I hope you're warming up your car.
Results coming in
Oklahoma goes to Hillary Clinton.
Illinois goes to Barack Obama.
Illinois, Connecticut, and New Jersey go to John McCain.
Massachusetts goes to Mitt Romney.
Illinois goes to Barack Obama.
Illinois, Connecticut, and New Jersey go to John McCain.
Massachusetts goes to Mitt Romney.
Polls close in several states, Georgia returns
Georgia has gone to Barack Obama. It's one of the big states on the Democratic side, with 87 delegates up for grabs. It's a tight 3-way race for the Republicans.
Voting in 9 states ends at the top of the hour. In Arkansas, for some reason, the polls close at 8:30.
Voting in 9 states ends at the top of the hour. In Arkansas, for some reason, the polls close at 8:30.
Two hours left to vote
It's time for us to take a break. Several members of the newsroom crew are using the break to go out and vote.
The primary in Georgia ends at the top of the hour. Two hours until the polls close in New York... so get out and vote.
The primary in Georgia ends at the top of the hour. Two hours until the polls close in New York... so get out and vote.
Who are you voting for?
- Jecoliah Ellis has been in Webster all day, at a Republican polling place. She says John McCain is the pick of most of the people she's spoke with, but not everyone is happy with the 4 choices.
- Kevin Jolly was at a Democratic polling place in Henrietta, and tells me that more than 150 people have been to the polls, which is more than poll workers expected at this point. So, who are they picking?
- Nice to see we've gotten a handful of replies to the polls on the right side of the page. Let's take it one step further. Why are you voting for these candidates? What appeals to you about them? Is there a candidate who rubs you the wrong way? Go ahead and comment by clicking on the word "Comments" below.
In other election news, Evan Axelbank caught up with longtime Brighton town supervisor Sandy Frankel, who announced today she's running for a State Senate seat. This could set up a showdown with someone else well known to voters in Brighton - Rick Dollinger, who stepped down as Town Justice this morning.
The district is New York's 56th. Joe Robach is the incumbent. In a statement, Robach said it's way too early to think about November, and he will announce his plans when it becomes appropriate.
- Kevin Jolly was at a Democratic polling place in Henrietta, and tells me that more than 150 people have been to the polls, which is more than poll workers expected at this point. So, who are they picking?
- Nice to see we've gotten a handful of replies to the polls on the right side of the page. Let's take it one step further. Why are you voting for these candidates? What appeals to you about them? Is there a candidate who rubs you the wrong way? Go ahead and comment by clicking on the word "Comments" below.
In other election news, Evan Axelbank caught up with longtime Brighton town supervisor Sandy Frankel, who announced today she's running for a State Senate seat. This could set up a showdown with someone else well known to voters in Brighton - Rick Dollinger, who stepped down as Town Justice this morning.
The district is New York's 56th. Joe Robach is the incumbent. In a statement, Robach said it's way too early to think about November, and he will announce his plans when it becomes appropriate.
Super Tuesday surprise; the "Mitt Mobile"
- It's not uncommon to see words painted on the cars of high school students (you'll be seeing that a lot come the Section V basketball tournament). Jecoliah Ellis caught up with Eric Myer, a Geneseo teen who is using his window space to get the word out about Mitt Romney, a candidate who has no organized campaign headquarters in the Rochester area.
- Two Ron Paul supporters were out in Brighton this morning, trying to get their candidate's name out there. Both admit that he's a longshot at this point, but have some interesting things to say about how Paul's campaign has made them rethink their own political stance.
- The Mountaineer State has spoken. Mike Huckabee has won West Virginia's 18 delegates.
- Two Ron Paul supporters were out in Brighton this morning, trying to get their candidate's name out there. Both admit that he's a longshot at this point, but have some interesting things to say about how Paul's campaign has made them rethink their own political stance.
- The Mountaineer State has spoken. Mike Huckabee has won West Virginia's 18 delegates.
First round of turnout numbers
Encouraging news from the Monroe Co. Board of Elections. Voter turnout numbers show interest in the New York Primary from Democrats is much higher than 4 years ago.
Here are the numbers as of 2:30 p.m.:
Democrats:
County - 11.9%
City of Rochester - 11.7%
Towns- 12%
County in 2004 - 4.6%
in 2000 - 5.9%
It looks like there is high interest among local Democrats, and that both campaigns have successfully mobilized registered voters.
(no numbers for 2004)
Why the decrease on the Republican side? In 2000, the Republican primary was a two horse race by this point, between George W. Bush and John McCain. The campaign was much higher profile, and more heated.
Here are the numbers as of 2:30 p.m.:
Democrats:
County - 11.9%
City of Rochester - 11.7%
Towns- 12%
County in 2004 - 4.6%
in 2000 - 5.9%
It looks like there is high interest among local Democrats, and that both campaigns have successfully mobilized registered voters.
Republicans:
County - 8.3%
City - 9.6%
Towns - 8.1%
(no numbers for 2004)
Why the decrease on the Republican side? In 2000, the Republican primary was a two horse race by this point, between George W. Bush and John McCain. The campaign was much higher profile, and more heated.
Super Tuesday in Rochester: What we're working on
Here's a brief look at what we're working on today.
- Eye on the Vote: We've been asking you what issue is the most important to you. We want your opinion on this question - but that's not all. Who did you vote for? Why? Any problems voting? How was your experience? Share with Rochester your take on any and all things Super Tuesday. We plan on including you as much as possible in our TV coverage tonight.
- Local campaigns: Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Huckabee all have campaigns in Rochester that will be closely watching tonight's results. We'll catch up with all of them. There's no official party tonight locally for Mitt Romney, but we do plan on meeting up with perhaps his biggest supporter in WNY, and who it is may surprise you.
- Polling places: We'll have crews in place at several polling places around Monroe County. What issues are important to primary voters?
- Voter turnout: Both parties have been urging members to get to the polls. Will members respond? Keep in mind, the turnout for the November election was among the worst ever in Monroe County.
- New York's delegates: The Democrat party delegates will be divvied up proportionally within Congressional districts. Time to dust off the scientific calculator. The Republicans make it easy - winner takes all.
- How your county voted: We're actually going to be collecting results from all Upstate counties west of Syracuse. On this blog, we'll figure out who won Monroe, Ontario. Wayne, Livingston, and Orleans County. While the delegates aren't split up by county, it should be interesting.
The polls are now open. They will close in 9 hours.
- Eye on the Vote: We've been asking you what issue is the most important to you. We want your opinion on this question - but that's not all. Who did you vote for? Why? Any problems voting? How was your experience? Share with Rochester your take on any and all things Super Tuesday. We plan on including you as much as possible in our TV coverage tonight.
- Local campaigns: Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Huckabee all have campaigns in Rochester that will be closely watching tonight's results. We'll catch up with all of them. There's no official party tonight locally for Mitt Romney, but we do plan on meeting up with perhaps his biggest supporter in WNY, and who it is may surprise you.
- Polling places: We'll have crews in place at several polling places around Monroe County. What issues are important to primary voters?
- Voter turnout: Both parties have been urging members to get to the polls. Will members respond? Keep in mind, the turnout for the November election was among the worst ever in Monroe County.
- New York's delegates: The Democrat party delegates will be divvied up proportionally within Congressional districts. Time to dust off the scientific calculator. The Republicans make it easy - winner takes all.
- How your county voted: We're actually going to be collecting results from all Upstate counties west of Syracuse. On this blog, we'll figure out who won Monroe, Ontario. Wayne, Livingston, and Orleans County. While the delegates aren't split up by county, it should be interesting.
The polls are now open. They will close in 9 hours.
Breaking down the delegates in NY
On the Democrat side, New York has 232 delegates, the second most of 22 states with Democrat contests today. We're not winner-take-all; delegates are allocated proportionally based on today's results. California, Illinois, and New Jersey are the other states to keep an eye on.
(* winner-take-all)
On the Republican side, New York is one of 9 states that are winner-take-all; the candidate that takes the state gets all of the delegates. With 87 delegates, New York is the largest winner-take-all prize of the night (Missouri is second with 58 delegates - followed by AZ, NJ, CT, UT, WV, MT, and DE, in that order). There are 21 Republican contests today.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Catching up with Curt
Our political analyst, Curt Smith, is an author and former speechwriter for President George H. W. Bush. As always, Curt will be a big part of primary election coverage on News 8 and Fox Rochester. On Monday, we asked him for his pre-Super Tuesday thoughts.- On Barack Obama: "The Obama surge is real. The surge is a phenomenon. The momentum he has from South Carolina is real... but also the endorsements. I personally feel that anyone the age of a baby boomer or older, the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, followed by Ted Kennedy, followed by Oprah Winfrey, has made a difference. It's given him a sheen of establishment approval.
- Obama's efforts in New York: "If you look at New York, Mrs. Clinton led him by 3-to-1 not so long ago. It's not entirely possible that he will come within closing distance of her. I can guarantee you if Obama gets 35 to 40% of the vote in New York, he's going to claim an enormous victory. On the Democratic side, this thing is going to go way beyond tomorrow. I would not have said that a month ago, but I think the landscape has changed. I think Democrats want a winner. They want change. The best defense is a good offense, to use a football term. He is playing offense on her turf. She's rebutting and reacting to him. If he picks up anything in New York, that's gravy. It's not something he would have expected."
- How imporant is getting out the vote? - "It's important in the sense that in party primaries, the level of voter participation is far lower than the general election. The most devoted, the most fanatical, the most zealous of party activists, by-in-large, decide who is nominated and who is not. You can win, for example, with 20 to 25% of the vote, whereas in a general election you would need 55 to 60%. It's an enormously different kind of operation, not as exclusive as a caucus, but more inclusive and democratic."
- Who's voting? "By-in-large, these are lifelong party activists, many of them in their 50s and 60s, that have voted Democrat or Republican all of their life, and in many cases they're guided by the decisions of local leaders. It's not necessarily a question of persuading them; it's a question of getting them out, particularly if the weather's bad, and getting them to the polls."
- On Undecideds: "My hunch is that on both sides of the political aisle, people by-in-large now have already made up their mind. Keep in mind that the Iowa caucus was in early January, and people have been running for President since 2004, so folks have had a lot of time to ingest and assimilate information, and therefore make up their mind. Anyone that's undecided right now, it seems to me, has been doing other things for a year and a half aside from focusing on politics."
- Jecoliah Ellis caught up with several family members of the 427th National Guard unit, based in Webster. All share the same big issue - the ongoing war in Iraq and escalating danger in Afghanistan, where the 427 was deployed to. Out of the 4 family members interviewed, 2 preferred Clinton, 1 preferred Obama and 1 preferred McCain. Jecoliah has been keeping in touch with the families since last month, when 223 members of the 427th headed to Afghanistan. You can see her piece here.
- Evan Axelbank went to a Barack Obama rally at Twelve Corners in Brighton late Monday afternoon. Obama supporters have been especially active as the primary approaches. You can see some of their work while driving. They've strategically placed Obama banners on several highway overpasses in and around Rochester.
- Scott Hetsko says expect breezy weather when you're heading to the polls tomorrow.
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