Catching up with Curt

Our political analyst, Curt Smith, is an author and former speechwriter for President George H. W. Bush. As always, Curt will be a big part of primary election coverage on News 8 and Fox Rochester. On Monday, we asked him for his pre-Super Tuesday thoughts.

• On Barack Obama: "The Obama surge is real. The surge is a phenomenon. The momentum he has from South Carolina is real... but also the endorsements. I personally feel that anyone the age of a baby boomer or older, the endorsement of Caroline Kennedy, followed by Ted Kennedy, followed by Oprah Winfrey, has made a difference. It's given him a sheen of establishment approval.


• Obama's efforts in New York: "If you look at New York, Mrs. Clinton led him by 3-to-1 not so long ago. It's not entirely possible that he will come within closing distance of her. I can guarantee you if Obama gets 35 to 40% of the vote in New York, he's going to claim an enormous victory. On the Democratic side, this thing is going to go way beyond tomorrow. I would not have said that a month ago, but I think the landscape has changed. I think Democrats want a winner. They want change. The best defense is a good offense, to use a football term. He is playing offense on her turf. She's rebutting and reacting to him. If he picks up anything in New York, that's gravy. It's not something he would have expected."


• How imporant is getting out the vote? - "It's important in the sense that in party primaries, the level of voter participation is far lower than the general election. The most devoted, the most fanatical, the most zealous of party activists, by-in-large, decide who is nominated and who is not. You can win, for example, with 20 to 25% of the vote, whereas in a general election you would need 55 to 60%. It's an enormously different kind of operation, not as exclusive as a caucus, but more inclusive and democratic."


• Who's voting? "By-in-large, these are lifelong party activists, many of them in their 50s and 60s, that have voted Democrat or Republican all of their life, and in many cases they're guided by the decisions of local leaders. It's not necessarily a question of persuading them; it's a question of getting them out, particularly if the weather's bad, and getting them to the polls."


• On Undecideds: "My hunch is that on both sides of the political aisle, people by-in-large now have already made up their mind. Keep in mind that the Iowa caucus was in early January, and people have been running for President since 2004, so folks have had a lot of time to ingest and assimilate information, and therefore make up their mind. Anyone that's undecided right now, it seems to me, has been doing other things for a year and a half aside from focusing on politics."

- Jecoliah Ellis caught up with several family members of the 427th National Guard unit, based in Webster. All share the same big issue - the ongoing war in Iraq and escalating danger in Afghanistan, where the 427 was deployed to. Out of the 4 family members interviewed, 2 preferred Clinton, 1 preferred Obama and 1 preferred McCain. Jecoliah has been keeping in touch with the families since last month, when 223 members of the 427th headed to Afghanistan. You can see her piece here.

- Evan Axelbank went to a Barack Obama rally at Twelve Corners in Brighton late Monday afternoon. Obama supporters have been especially active as the primary approaches. You can see some of their work while driving. They've strategically placed Obama banners on several highway overpasses in and around Rochester.

- Scott Hetsko says expect breezy weather when you're heading to the polls tomorrow.